The description in today's Times of the parliamentary seat Norwich North (the site of the forthcoming by-election) and the Conservative candidate Chloe Smith as being a "Tory candidate in a long-shot Labour seat - 163 on the target list" is wide of the mark.
Leaving aside the fact that Rallings and Thrasher have calculated that it is the 162nd most vulnerable Labour seat, Norwich North is precisely the sort of seat that David Cameron's party will have to win to have even a small working majority, requiring a swing of 8.3%. It should be remembered that the Conservatives need a swing of 6.9% (or the top 140 target seats) to have any chance of having the smallest of overall majorities.
Norwich North is just the sort of seat that will determine whether the UK has its first Conservative Government of this century - but being a by-election a Conservative loss would be disastrous.
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